Mauricio "Shogun" Rua: Chuck's next winRealistically, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (17-3) has only lost one of his last six fights, two of his last fifteen if you want to go further back.

And while we’re talking “the realistic,” he’s looked terrible in both of his long-awaited UFC skirmishes.

In his fight at UFC 76, Forrest Griffin fought him to his own point of exhaustion, outworking him in the final grappling exchange and securing the choke to force a tap with fifteen seconds left in the fight.

He returned after a knee operation that required nearly a year of off-time to face longtime thorn-in-his-side Mark “The Hammer” Coleman, in an attempt to avenge a loss he incurred at Pride 31, a called stoppage due to an injury when Coleman shot in for a takedown and Shogun dislocated his elbow defending it as he hit the ground, in an awkward and freakish ending that saw both fighters’ camps (Chute Boxe and Hammer House) fill the ring immediately following the bout.

At UFC 93, they fought for nearly as long as Shogun had fought Griffin one fight prior. Come the end of round one, Shogun was breathing hard. Come the end of round two, Shogun was moving like Coleman was, their breathing evenly heavy, their movement equally fatigued. The problem there: Shogun turned 27 6 months ago. Coleman is 80.

(just kidding, he’s 44)

In the final minute of round three, both fighters were so tired that they were unable to keep their hands up. Both had left everything out there, spending themselves all but enough to stand in front of one another and wing wild, tired attempts at hitting one another. All Coleman had to do at a point was hang in there, for just about a half minute more, when Shogun launched a tired and casted hook from about hip-level that sent Coleman crashing to the canvas.

The referee rushed in to stop the contest suddenly, as Coleman, though scrambling for Shogun’s ankle in recovery as he hit the floor face first following the bomb he’d just eaten, still hit the floor face first following the bomb he’d just eaten. Too tired to even put his hands out to break the fall, Shogun escaped from what was, at that point, Coleman’s fight. Had it gone to the cards, judges had given both rounds one and two to a more aggressive, older Coleman.

Now, Shogun will have the unenviable task of taking on a fighter who has held both seven-fight and ten-fight win streaks in his career, yet has lost his last three of four fights. The last time Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell (21-6) has endured any such kind of losing streak was in 2003, when from June to November, he lost two of three fights by TKO to both Randy Couture (UFC 43) and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (Pride: Final Conflict 2003). He was 33 at the time.

He returned to go on a seven-fight tear, defeating Randy Couture twice (retiring him once) and winning a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship that he’d defend four times, before losing it in May of 2007 to old nemesis Quinton Jackson, in a fight that would start recent decline. He’s since dropped a decision to Keith Jardine, earned a unanimous decision win over Wanderlei Silva, and has been knocked out cold by Rashad Evans. He is now 39.

Even still, despite his age, Shogun could be just about the best they could match him against. Not only for us, the fans, but for Chuck, and to seal another chapter in the somewhat downplayed over time, yet very alive “Pride vs. UFC” saga.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua meeting Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell in the UFC is a bit of a disappointment to some fans, who would’ve liked to see how a downed Liddell may handle the oncoming soccer kicks to the head, knees to the head and head stomps of an advancing Rua. In the states, such tactics are deemed illegal. In Japan, these tactics put Chute Boxe fighters like Rua in a class all their own.

Given the age disparity, an elder Liddell will appear in this contest with both advanced experience, and we’ll call it an “advanced” lifespan. Given the circumstances, he’s got every reason to want to want to win this fight.

“I still have the tools and still have the stuff to do that again,” Liddell said recently. “I'm still fast. I'm in great, great shape. I think it's still there. Now it's all about going out and showing everybody it's still there and do what I've always been trying to do: prove I'm the best in the world at 205.”

Chuck says that his training has advanced, and that his camps entail a more straightforward focus on footwork, striking defense and conditioning. He’s been trained throughout his time since January by both the Coconut Creek, FL-based American Top Team, and by the camp’s boxing director, 1976 Olympic Boxing Gold Medalist, Howard Davis. A confident Liddell proudly declared that he’s in the best shape of his life.

"It's probably the first time I've ever said that," Liddell said of the proclamation he makes of his athletic shape. "I think this is one of the best conditioning runs I've had. I'm in great shape and have been training since January 13. I'm peaking and I'm feeling really, really good."

"You have to learn, try to improve and add things to your game," Liddell said. "You don't want to abandon the stuff that works for you, but you also want to make improvements.

“A lot of what Howard did for me, and hopefully will work on a lot more after, is staying in good position to throw. He was like, 'You have a great offense. Let's work on your defense and stay in good position to explode with that offense.' That why I've been working on footwork and movement and all that stuff."

The event’s subtitle is “Redemption”, and though it most likely wasn’t intended to apply so directly to the match-up between Rua and Liddell, it does definitively.

Rua’s looked flat in his last two performances and is looking to redeem his status as the world’s top light-heavyweight martial artist, and he’s yet to look capable of doing so in his two UFC attempts. A win over Liddell casts all recent doubt aside, and propels him right back into the picture.

Liddell, meanwhile, is the prototype fighter that many fighters eyeballed when thinking of the bigger, stronger fighter who’d finally take these somewhat-less-upright Chute Boxe guys and cut them down to size following a long and storied run of beating up on the Japanese. Chuck did well in his first attempt, taking the most veteran of those Chute Boxe fighters, Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva to a unanimous decision victory. Shogun will be the second Chute Boxe fighter he’s faced since Pride’s roster was merged into the UFC’s following the UFC’s acquisition of the Japanese organization.

Hojak’s Prediction on Shogun vs. Liddell at UFC 97

Just as with the fighter he beat most recently(Coleman), it’s hard to give Shogun a chance if the fight gets past, say, the three minute mark of the first round. Call me a pessimist, but his conditioning’s looked to be a far cry from that of the Shogun of yesteryears ago. While it’s possible that Shogun’s conditioning has suffered tremendously due to the off-time required to rehab injuries post-surgery, it’s a safe and fair assumption to make that those surgeries have left his athletic component somewhat altered.

Chuck, meanwhile, had simply been caught a couple of times. They say styles make fights, which would clearly explain why Jardine can beat Chuck Liddell, run off and get knocked out by Wanderlei Silva, and then Chuck fights Wanderlei and wins a decision. In addition to being bigger and stronger than the Chute Boxe fighters at his weight class, his style perfectly kept Wanderlei at range, and their fight turned to Wanderlei advancing upon a punching Liddell, to no effect, more often than not over three rounds.

Withstanding the possibility of the knockout in the second round, which I can see happening due to what could be Shogun’s slowed pace by then, Chuck has more than what it takes to engage Shogun for three rounds and walk away the winner. Shogun simply doesn’t have that dynamic flare anymore, and while he can sustain impressively in today’s fights, he’ll hardly entertain like he did in Pride ever again, and he’d do so at risk of reinjuring that which he just spent a year recovering from.

The Betting Line: Chuck Liddell (-170) vs. Mauricio Rua (+150)

Lines for Shogun have fluctuated to +150 from +170 - +180 early in the week. This signifies that while money’s coming in on Shogun, Vegas still isn’t convinced that he’s got a clear shot at winning. The low plus-line signifies that they believe in his slight chance, and are only willing to pay out and 1.5-to-1, but that shouldn’t suggest that they’re planning to.

With Liddell favored at -170, a bet of $170 required to win $100, the money line may suggest that Vegas plans on little action for this fight. Those setting the odds usually falter in their odds-making, and for that reason, wagering lines on MMA fights can be of particular interest to those unfamiliar with specific fighters on the card, or those just looking to put down a couple bucks on the big time underdog.

… which, by the way, is Thales Leites (+502) fighting Anderson Silva (-502).